The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects

IOCAS-IR

	The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
	MU Mu ; DUAN WanSuo ; TANG YouMin
发表期刊	Science China(Earth Sciences)
ISSN	1674-7313
	2017-11-01
出版年	2017
卷号	v.60 期号:11 页码:97-108
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
摘要	This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit(IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed.The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.
关键词	Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic predictability limit Ensemble forecast
CNKI专辑号	A;
CNKI专辑名称	基础科学;
CNKI专题号	A009;A010;
CNKI专题名称	气象学;海洋学;
分类号	P456;P73
收录类别	中科院核心 ; 中科院扩展
语种	英文;
资助项目(基金）	supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420, 41376018 & 41606012)
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/189139
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
作者单位	1.InstituteofAtmosphericSciences,FudanUniversity 2.InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 3.InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences 4.CollegeofEarthSciences,UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 5.SecondInstituteofOceanographyStateOceanicAdministration
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	MU Mu,DUAN WanSuo,TANG YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects. 2017.