Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

doi:10.1029/2023JC020867

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean
	Cui, Zhanxian 1,2; Li, Yuanlong 1,2,3; Guo, Yaru 1; Wang, Fan1,2,3
	2024-07-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
ISSN	2169-9275
卷号	129 期号:7 页码:19
通讯作者	Li, Yuanlong([email protected])
摘要	Marginal seas of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), including the South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas, are hotspots of large-scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer with notable impacts on local ecosystems. Yet, the prediction of these MHWs remains challenging. By analyzing 39 MHWs and 45 marine cold-spells (MCSs) observed in the summers of 1982-2021, this study reveals a robust modulation effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on these events. The results show that 56% of MHWs and 51% of MCSs overlapped with MJO events, and their duration is systematically longer than others. Moreover, MHWs in phases 3-4 and MCSs in phases 6-7 of the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index were nearly 2-3 times stronger in intensity than the others. The passage of MJOs drives prominent intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through perturbing surface heat fluxes, which in turn modulates the occurrence of MHWs and MCSs. During RMM phases 1-2 (convective center over of the east of Africa or the central-western Indian Ocean), the SETIO is controlled by a dry condition, with increased surface insolation and suppressed latent heat release. These anomalous fluxes drive a persistent SST increase, facilitating the emergence of strong and prolonged MHWs in the subsequent RMM phases 3-4. Further analysis suggests an 18% probability for MHWs in the SETIO 12 +/- 10 days after Phase 1. Therefore, the MJO contributes to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs of the SETIO, with implications for predicting climate extremes and hazards. The South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) suffer from frequent and strong marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer. These events have significant impacts on the local environment. This research explores how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) affects these MHWs and marine cold-spells (MCSs). We find that MHWs and MCSs occurring with MJOs tend to persist longer than others. MHWs are overall stronger in phases 3-4 of the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index than the others, while MCSs are enhanced in RMM phases 6-7. The MJO causes sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through surface heat fluxes. In RMM phases 1-2, the SETIO experiences dry condition with increased solar radiation and reduced wind speed, enhancing the likelihood of strong MHWs in subsequent phases 3-4. MJO is potentially helpful in predicting MHWs and MCSs. For example, there is an 18% probability of the MHW in the SETIO when the MJO evolves to RMM Phase 3 from RMM Phase 1 within 12 +/- 10 days. This probability exceeds the 95% background occurrence probability (similar to 4%) by four folds. Generally, eastward propagating MJOs contribute to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs in the SETIO. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) are modulated by MJOs and significantly enhanced in real-time multivariate MJO phases 3-4 MJOs drive intraseasonal temperature variability in the SETIO by surface shortwave radiation and latent heat flux and thereby modulate MHWs The eastward-propagating MJOs effectively contribute to the predictability of MHWs and marine cold-spells in the SETIO
关键词	Madden-Julian Oscillation marine heatwaves intraseasonal temperature variability southeast tropical Indian Ocean
DOI	10.1029/2023JC020867
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000]; Natural Science Foundation of China[42090044]; Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202202601]; Ocean Science Data Center, IOCAS
WOS研究方向	Oceanography
WOS类目	Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:001262811100001
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS关键词	MARINE HEAT-WAVE ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW ; WESTERN-AUSTRALIA ; SUMMER ; MJO ; SST ; PREDICTABILITY ; PACIFIC ; INCREASE
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186300
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Li, Yuanlong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cui, Zhanxian,Li, Yuanlong,Guo, Yaru,et al. Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2024,129(7):19.
APA	Cui, Zhanxian,Li, Yuanlong,Guo, Yaru,&Wang, Fan.(2024).Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,129(7),19.
MLA	Cui, Zhanxian,et al."Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 129.7(2024):19.