An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

doi:10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset
	Hu Dunxin 1,2; Yu Lejiang 1,2,3,4
	2008-11-01
发表期刊	CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
ISSN	0254-4059
卷号	26 期号:4 页码:421-424
文章类型	Article
摘要	In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.; In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.
关键词	South China Sea Summer Monsoon Warm Pool Heat Content
学科领域	Limnology ; Oceanography
DOI	10.1007/s00343-008-0421-9
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000262669100015
引用统计	被引频次：10[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/5260
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Polar Res Inst China, Shanghai 200136, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室; 中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu Dunxin,Yu Lejiang. An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2008,26(4):421-424.
APA	Hu Dunxin,&Yu Lejiang.(2008).An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset.CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,26(4),421-424.
MLA	Hu Dunxin,et al."An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset".CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 26.4(2008):421-424.

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