The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM

doi:10.1002/2014JC010473

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM
	Feng, Rong 1; Duan, Wansuo 1; Mu, Mu 2; Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China.
	2014-12-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
卷号	119 期号:12 页码:8688-8708
文章类型	Article
摘要	Within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) coupled model, we find that the winter predictability barrier (WPB) exists in both the growing and decaying phases of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events, due to the effects of initial errors. The physical mechanism of the WPB, in which the initial errors show a significant seasonal-dependent evolution with the fastest error growth in winter, is explored from the dynamical and thermodynamical viewpoints. In terms of dynamics, in the growing phase of pure positive IOD events, the vertical temperature advection associated with the reference state IOD events plays a dominant role in advancing the fastest error growth in winter; in terms of thermodynamics, the latent heat flux error and the shortwave radiation error lead to the fastest error growth in winter and favor the occurrence of the WPB. In the decaying phase of pure positive IOD events, the occurrence of the WPB is mainly due to the latent heat flux error since the dynamics play an insignificant role in advancing the fast error growth in winter. For positive IOD events accompanied by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the physical mechanism of the WPB is similar to that for pure positive IOD events in both the growing and decaying phases, except that the shortwave radiation error has a different effect on the error growth in winter, which may be closely related to the perturbed atmospheric circulation in the tropical Indian Ocean associated with ENSO.
关键词	Indian Ocean Dipole Winter Predictability Barrier Error Growth
学科领域	Oceanography
DOI	10.1002/2014JC010473
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000348452800027
引用统计	被引频次：32[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/23975
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu,et al. The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2014,119(12):8688-8708.
APA	Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu,&Duan, WS .(2014).The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,119(12),8688-8708.
MLA	Feng, Rong,et al."The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 119.12(2014):8688-8708.

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文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
The winter predictab（2358KB）			限制开放	ODC PDDL	浏览