热带印度洋-太平洋海洋热含量与南海-南亚夏季风强度的关系

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	热带印度洋-太平洋海洋热含量与南海-南亚夏季风强度的关系
其他题名	The relationship between the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content and the intensity of South China Sea-South Asian Summer Monsoon
	董玉杰
学位类型	博士
导师	胡敦欣
	2015-05-21
学位授予单位	中国科学院大学
学位授予地点	北京
学位专业	物理海洋学
关键词	热带印度-太平洋南海-南亚夏季风热含量 Cmip5 Fgoals-s2
摘要	南海夏季风和南亚夏季风作为亚洲夏季风的重要组成部分，其强度的变化对当地人民的生活、生产有重要的影响。本文利用JMA逐月的海温资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMIP5模拟资料，研究了热带印度洋-太平洋上层海洋热含量与南海夏季风强度的关系；并根据前人的研究把南亚季风区分为南亚西区季风区(2.5°-20°N, 35°-70°E)与南亚东区季风区（2.5°-20°N, 70°-110°E），分析比较了1976/1977年气候突变前后印度洋-太平洋上层海洋热含量分别与南亚东区夏季风、南亚西区夏季风强度关系的差异；评估了CMIP5模式对印度洋-太平洋上层海洋热含量与南海-南亚（东区、西区）夏季风强度关系的模拟能力；比较了Fgoals-s2模式对西太暖池热含量与南海夏季风爆发关系的模拟和再分析数据之间的差异。主要获得如下结论：（1）相比西太暖池SST，西太暖池上层海洋热含量对南海夏季风强度具有更强、更稳定的预测能力。南海夏季风强度与前期冬春季节西太暖池热含量呈显著的正相关，与前期冬春季热带西印度洋上层海洋热含量呈显著的负相关。太平洋热含量主要通过影响其上空的Walker环流、西太副高以及南海越赤道气流对南海夏季风强度产生影响；热带西印度洋热含量主要通过影响其上空的气压以及反气旋对南海夏季风强度产生影响。（2）1976/1977年之前南亚西区夏季风强度与春季热带南印度洋和热带太平洋上层海洋热含量相关比较显著，1977年后相关不显著；1976/1977年后，南亚东区夏季风强度与热带中太平洋上层海洋热含量相关性比较显著，而1976年之前相关分布不显著。南印度洋热含量的变化主要通过影响索马里越赤道气流对南亚西区夏季风产生影响，而热带太平洋热含量的变化主要通过ENSO 对Walker环流产生影响进而影响南亚夏季风强度。（3）CMIP5模式中，多数模式可以模拟出1976/1977年南亚东区夏季风强度的转变，但只有少数模式能模拟出1976/1977年前后南亚西区夏季风强度的转变；大多数模式可以模拟出南亚东（西）区夏季风强度与印度洋-太平洋热含量相关关系的空间分布，有的模式模拟的相关关系在1976/1977年前后存在显著差异,但与再分析资料获得的结果相差较大；虽然部分模式能够模拟出南海-南亚夏季风强度与热含量的相关分布的空间特征，但是模拟的相关系数普遍偏弱（部分偏强），这可能与复杂的海气耦合过程有关系。（4）Fgoals-s2模式可以模拟出西太暖池热含量与南海夏季风爆发的负相关关系，但与融合了观测数据的再分析资料相比仍有一定差异。再分析数据中4月份100米以上暖池热含量与南海夏季风爆发时间相关性最好，两者相关系数为-0.67，超过99.9%置信检验；而Fgoals-s2模拟结果显示2月份65米以上暖池热含量与南海夏季风爆发时间相关性最好，两者相关系数为-0.47，也超过99.9%置信度检验。
其他摘要	As important parts of Asian Summer monsoon, the South China Sea Summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the South Asian Summer monsoon (SASM) have a significant impact on the local people the South Asian Summer The relationship between the upper ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and the intensity/onset of SCSSM and SASM are investigated using the ocean-atmosphere reanalysis data, CMIP5 output, Fgoals_s2 coupled model, etc. According to previous studies, the SASM is divided into the Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon (SWASM) (2.5°N-20°N, 35°E-70°E) and the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon (SEASM) (2.5°N-20°N, 70°E-110°E) in this paper. The different influences of the Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on the intensity of SWASM/SEASM before and after 1976/1977 is compared; the skills of the CMIP5 coupled climate models in simulating the relation between the heat content and the intensity of SCSSM-ASSM are assessed; the performance of FGOALS-s2 in simulating the relation between the heat content in the tropical Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the SCSSM onset is also evaluated. The main results are as follows. （1）Comparing with WPWP SST, the WPWP upper ocean HC is a more effective predictor of the SCSSM intensity. The SCSSM intensity is positively and negatively correlated with the WPWP upper ocean HC and the western tropical Indian Ocean HC during the preceding winter–spring, respectively. The tropical Pacific impacts the SCSSM by means of affecting the Walker circulation, the Western Pacific subtropical high and the South China Sea cross equatorial flow; while the tropical Western Indian Ocean affects the SCSSM through influencing the pressure gradient and the anti-cyclone over the Indian Ocean. （2）Before the 1976/77 climate shift, SWASM is highly related to the HC in the Southern Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean, SEASM is poorly related to the HC in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. However, there is no significant correlation between the SWASM and HC in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a good correlation between the SEASM and the central tropical Pacific HC after the 1976/77 climate shift. The Southern Indian Ocean can influence the pressure gradient between Southern Africa and the Northern Indian Ocean, which leading to the variation of the Somali cross equatorial flow and hence the SWASM; while the tropical Pacific impacts the SWASM and SEASM through the remote forcing of ENSO. （3）Through assessing the skills of the CMIP5 coupled climate models in simulating the relation between the HC and the intensity of summer monsoon, we find that few models can simulate the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between the SCSSM intensity and the HC; few models can simulate the change of the SWASM’s intensity before and after the 1976/77 climate shift, most models can simulate the change of the SEASM’s intensity before and after the 1976/77 climate shift; most models can simulate the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between the intensity of SWASM (SEASM) and HC; all the models do not reproduce the different relationship of the Indo-Pacific Ocean HC and the SWASM/SEASM before and after 1976/1977. Though some models can simulate the spatial distribution of the correlation between the intensity of summer monsoon and the HC, the simulated correlations are generally weaker than that from the reanalysis data. （4）The negative correlation between the WPWP HC and the SCSSM onset is reproduced by Fgoals-s2. In the reanalysis data, the onset time of SCSSM has a peak correlation of -0.67 with the April WPWP heat content above 100 m; while from the Fgoals-s2 output, we find that the SCSSM onset shows the significant correlation (-0.47) with the February WPWP heat content above 65 m.
学科领域	海洋环流与波动
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/22784
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	董玉杰. 热带印度洋-太平洋海洋热含量与南海-南亚夏季风强度的关系[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.

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