Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

IOCAS-IR

	Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation
	GUO Yunxia ; HOU Yijun ; QI Peng
发表期刊	Journal of Oceanology and Limnology
ISSN	2096-5508
	2019-11-15
出版年	2019
卷号	v.37 期号:06 页码:206-225
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
摘要	As one of the most serious natural disasters, many typhoons affect southeastern China every year. Taking Shenzhen, a coastal city in southeast China as an example, we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis. By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI), typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen. We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons. In addition, the Yan Meng(YM) wind field model was introduced, and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed. Using the YM wind field model, extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons. The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.
关键词	typhoon hazard analysis Monte-Carlo simulation wind field model extreme wind speed
CNKI专辑号	A;
CNKI专辑名称	基础科学;
CNKI专题号	A009;
CNKI专题名称	气象学;
分类号	P444
收录类别	中科院核心 ; 中科院扩展
语种	英文;
资助项目(基金）	Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Nos.2016YFC1402004,2016YFC1402000,2018YFC1407003) ; the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1706216,U1606402,41421005)
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/188416
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
作者单位	1.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 2.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 3.CenterforOceanMega-Science,ChineseAcademyofSciences 4.LaboratoryforOceanandClimateDynamics,QingdaoNationalLaboratoryforMarineScienceandTechnology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	GUO Yunxia,HOU Yijun,QI Peng. Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation. 2019.