The Optimal Precursors for ENSO Events Depicted Using the Gradientdefinition-based Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model

IOCAS-IR

	The Optimal Precursors for ENSO Events Depicted Using the Gradientdefinition-based Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model
	Bin MU ; Juhui REN ; Shijin YUAN ; Rong-Hua ZHANG; Lei CHEN; Chuan GAO
发表期刊	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
ISSN	0256-1530
	2019-12-10
出版年	2019
卷号	v.36 期号:12 页码:85-96
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
摘要	The predictability of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been an important area of study for years. Searching for the optimal precursor (OPR) of ENSO occurrence is an effective way to understand its predictability. The CNOP(conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation), one of the most effective ways to depict the predictability of ENSO, is adopted to study the optimal sea surface temperature (SST) precursors (SST-OPRs) of ENSO in the IOCAS ICM (intermediate coupled model developed at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences). To seek the SST-OPRs of ENSO in the ICM, non-ENSO events simulated by the ICM are chosen as the basic state. Then, the gradient-definition-based method (GD method) is employed to solve the CNOP for different initial months of the basic years to obtain the SSTOPRs. The experimental results show that the obtained SST-OPRs present a positive anomaly signal in the western-central equatorial Pacific, and obvious differences exist in the patterns between the different seasonal SST-OPRs along the equatorial western-central Pacific, showing seasonal dependence to some extent. Furthermore, the non-El Ni?o events can eventually evolve into El Ni?o events when the SST-OPRs are superimposed on the corresponding seasons; the peaks of the Ni?o3.4 index occur at the ends of the years, which is consistent with the evolution of the real El Ni?o. These results show that the GD method is an effective way to obtain SST-OPRs for ENSO events in the ICM. Moreover, the OPRs for ENSO depicted using the GD method provide useful information for finding the early signal of ENSO in the ICM.
关键词	optimal precursor ENSO gradient-definition-based method conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation intermediate coupled model
CNKI专辑号	A;
CNKI专辑名称	基础科学;
CNKI专题号	A009;A010;
CNKI专题名称	气象学;海洋学;
分类号	P732
收录类别	中科院核心 ; 中科院扩展
语种	英文;
资助项目(基金）	supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 22120190 207) ; the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102) ; the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1404102(2017YFC1404100)) ; the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant No. GASIIPOVAI-06) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690122(41690120), 41490644(41490640), 414210 05) ; the Taishan Scholarship ; the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, for providing technical support for IOCAS ICM
文献类型	CNKI期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/188386
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
作者单位	1.SchoolofSoftwareEngineering,TongjiUniversity 2.ChineseAcademyofSciencesKeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 3.QingdaoNationalLaboratoryforMarineScienceandTechnology 4.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 5.ShanghaiCentralMeteorologicalObservatory
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bin MU,Juhui REN,Shijin YUAN,et al. The Optimal Precursors for ENSO Events Depicted Using the Gradientdefinition-based Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model. 2019.