Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab0

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific
	Chen, Qiaojun 1,2,3; Li, Delei 2,3,4,5; Feng, Jianlong 1; Qi, Jifeng 2,3,5; Zhao, Liang 1; Yin, Baoshu 2,3,4,5,6
	2024-07-01
发表期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	19 期号:7 页码:12
通讯作者	Li, Delei([email protected]) ; Feng, Jianlong([email protected])
摘要	In boreal summer (July-August) 2022, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) occurred in the northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP), while a record-breaking terrestrial heatwave (THW) hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The temperature anomalies caused by this compound MHW-THW event exceeded climatology by 2.5 standard deviations (SDs), breaking the historical record for nearly 100 years, with severe impacts on the ecosystems and social economy. To investigate the underlying causes, we explored the potential roles of anthropogenic forcing, atmospheric circulation, and 'triple-dip' La Ni & ntilde;a on this compound event using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations. Results indicate that the 2022-like compound MHW-THW event was extremely unlikely to happen without anthropogenic warming, and that such extreme heatwaves were governed by the climatic mean temperature rather than changes in temperature variability. Notably, the anticyclone circulation patterns and associated high-pressure systems (i.e. western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and South Asian high (SAH)) increase the probability of a 2022-like MHW-THW event by 3.7 times. However, the La Ni & ntilde;a phase has no significant effect on the occurrence probability of such events. We further estimate that the 2022-like MHW-THW event will become 7.5 and 11.4 times more likely under the SSP3-7.0 scenario by the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively. This study demonstrates the contribution of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability to the occurrence of compound MHW-THW events and highlights the urgent need to build mitigation strategies for compound MHW-THW events.
关键词	compound events extreme event attribution marine heatwave terrestrial heatwave anthropogenic forcing
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab0
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Project of China[2022YFE0112800]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42176198]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42176203]; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000]; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2022204]; Taishan Scholars Program[tsqn202211252]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001262687800001
出版者	IOP Publishing Ltd
WOS关键词	ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; RAPID ATTRIBUTION ; HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; SOUTH CHINA ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; EXTREMES ; WEATHER ; RISK ; VARIABILITY
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186339
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者	Li, Delei; Feng, Jianlong
作者单位	1.Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Key Lab Marine Resource Chem & Food Technol TUST, Tianjin, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Shenyang, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Engn Lab Marine Ranching, Qingdao, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所; 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所; 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Qiaojun,Li, Delei,Feng, Jianlong,et al. Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2024,19(7):12.
APA	Chen, Qiaojun,Li, Delei,Feng, Jianlong,Qi, Jifeng,Zhao, Liang,&Yin, Baoshu.(2024).Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(7),12.
MLA	Chen, Qiaojun,et al."Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.7(2024):12.