Potential distribution of<i> Crassostrea</i><i> sikamea</i> (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e02843

	Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change
	Liu, Bingxian 1,2; Liu, Zhenqiang 1,3; Chen, Ya 1,2; Lu, Ruijing 1,4; Li, Cui1,2 ; Ma, Peizhen1,2 ; Yu, Haolin 2,5; Zhang, Zhen 1,2; Wang, Haiyan 1,2
	2024-04-01
发表期刊	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
卷号	50 页码:13
通讯作者	Wang, Haiyan([email protected])
摘要	Global climate change has led to ocean warming, acidification, hypoxia, and alterations in the biogeochemical circulation, thereby influencing the distribution, abundance, and population patterns of marine organisms. Particularly, oysters, which tend to attach to rocks in intertidal zones, may be more vulnerable to climate change. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), is renowned for its nutritional content, breeding benefits, and ecosystem restoration abilities. Previous research has demonstrated that the geographical range of C. sikamea in China has gradually shifted. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to predict the suitability for C. sikamea under different climate scenarios. We utilized first-hand data collected by our research team over the past 14 years, which consisted of 3030 C. sikamea samples from seven provinces in China. The contribution rate of the environmental variables and the jackknife test revealed that salinity (13-21PSS) and temperature (24.6-25.5 degrees C) are the primary factors influencing the distribution of C. sikamea. The future distribution shows a south -to -north migration pattern triggered by increased sea temperature, resulting in increased suitability at higher latitudes. The migratory effect is more dramatic under the high -emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5)) compared to medium-(RCP4.5/RCP6.0) and low -emission scenarios (RCP2.6) and becomes increasingly evident over time. Model predictions indicated that C. sikamea could maintain its suitability under all climate scenarios until the 2050s. However, by the 2100s, the suitability is expected to shift northward beyond the 33-34 degrees N boundary under RCP2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, extending to the northern coast of Jiangsu. The suitability of C. sikamea within its habitat may experience a significant decline by the 2050s, followed by a gradual recovery over the next 50 years. The potential northward migration of C. sikamea presents new prospects for oyster aquaculture and artificial reefs establishment in China. However, this migration will inevitably lead to significant impacts on the invaded ecosystems and overall biodiversity.
关键词	Global climate change MaxEnt Suitable distribution Oyster
DOI	10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e02843
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[42076092]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41776179]; National Key R&D Program of China[2022YFD2401301]; National Key R&D Program of China[2022FY100304]; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000]; Earmarked Fund for Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System[CARS-47]
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001188181900001
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; WATER-QUALITY ; OYSTER REEFS ; MARINE ; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT ; SEA ; CONSEQUENCES ; MECHANISMS
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184939
专题	海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者	Wang, Haiyan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Marine Organism Taxon & Phylogeny, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Qingdao Agr Univ, Sch Marine Sci & Engn, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 4.Qingdao Agr Univ, Coll Life Sci, Qingdao 266109, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Bingxian,Liu, Zhenqiang,Chen, Ya,et al. Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change[J]. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,2024,50:13.
APA	Liu, Bingxian.,Liu, Zhenqiang.,Chen, Ya.,Lu, Ruijing.,Li, Cui.,...&Wang, Haiyan.(2024).Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,50,13.
MLA	Liu, Bingxian,et al."Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION 50(2024):13.