New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY plus plus method

doi:10.3897/aiep.53.105910

	New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY plus plus method
	Froese, Rainer 1; Winker, Henning 2; Coro, Gianpaolo 3; Palomares, Maria-Lourdes Deng 4; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.5; Dimarchopoulou, Donna 6,7; Touloumis, Konstantinos 8; Demirel, Nazli 9; Vianna, Gabriel M. S.10; Scarcella, Giuseppe 11; Schijns, Rebecca 4; Liang, Cui 12,13; Pauly, Daniel 4
	2023
发表期刊	ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA
ISSN	0137-1592
卷号	53 页码:173-189
通讯作者	Froese, Rainer([email protected])
摘要	Following an introduction to the nature of fisheries catches and their information content, a new development of CMSY, a data -limited stock assessment method for fishes and invertebrates, is presented. This new version, CMSY++, overcomes several of the deficiencies of CMSY, which itself improved upon the "Catch-MSY" method published by S. Martell and R. Froese in 2013. The catch-only application of CMSY++ uses a Bayesian implementation of a modified Schaefer model, which also allows the fitting of abundance indices should such information be available. In the absence of historical catch time series and abundance indices, CMSY++ depends strongly on the provision of appropriate and informative priors for plausible ranges of initial and final stock depletion. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) now assists in selecting objective priors for relative stock size based on patterns in 400 catch time series used for training. Regarding the cross-validation of the ANN predictions, of the 400 real stocks used in the training of ANN, 94% of final relative biomass (B/k) Bayesian (BSM) estimates were within the approximate 95% confidence limits of the respective CMSY++ estimate. Also, the equilibrium catch-biomass relations of the modified Schaefer model are compared with those of alternative surplus-production and age-structured models, suggesting that the latter two can be strongly biased towards underestimating the biomass required to sustain catches at low abundance. Numerous independent applications demonstrate how CMSY++ can incorporate, in addition to the required catch time series, both abundance data and a wide variety of ancillary information. We stress, however, the caveats and pitfalls of naively using the built-in prior options, which should instead be evaluated case-by-case and ideally be replaced by independent prior knowledge.
关键词	data limited stock assessments Elasmobranchii finfish global fisheries informative priors shellfish stock status Teleostei
DOI	10.3897/aiep.53.105910
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	German Fed-eral Nature Conservation Agency (BfN) - Minderoo Foun-dation; German Federal Nature Conservation Agency (BfN); Sea Around Us; Philanthropic foundations; Minderoo Foundation; European Union[101000302]
WOS研究方向	Fisheries ; Zoology
WOS类目	Fisheries ; Zoology
WOS记录号	WOS:001161444700002
出版者	PENSOFT PUBLISHERS
WOS关键词	DATA-MODERATE ; PERFORMANCE ; FISHERIES ; MODEL ; RECRUITMENT ; US
引用统计	被引频次：10[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184512
专题	海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者	Froese, Rainer
作者单位	1.GEOMAR, Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, Kiel, Germany 2.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy 3.CNR, Inst Informat Sci & Technol, Pisa, Italy 4.Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Sea Us, Vancouver, BC, Canada 5.Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Biol, Lab Ichthyol, Thessaloniki, Greece 6.Dalhousie Univ, Biol Dept, Halifax, NS, Canada 7.Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Biol Dept, Woods Hole, MA USA 8.Hellen Agr Org Dimitra, Fisheries Res Inst, Nea Peramos, Kavala, Greece 9.Istanbul Univ, Inst Marine Sci & Management, Istanbul, Turkiye 10.Univ Western Australia, Sch Biol Sci, Sea Us Indian Ocean, Crawley, WA, Australia 11.Natl Res Council CNR, Inst Marine Biol Resources & Biotechnol IRBIM, Ancona, Italy 12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China 13.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Froese, Rainer,Winker, Henning,Coro, Gianpaolo,et al. New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY plus plus method[J]. ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA,2023,53:173-189.
APA	Froese, Rainer.,Winker, Henning.,Coro, Gianpaolo.,Palomares, Maria-Lourdes Deng.,Tsikliras, Athanassios C..,...&Pauly, Daniel.(2023).New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY plus plus method.ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA,53,173-189.
MLA	Froese, Rainer,et al."New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY plus plus method".ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA 53(2023):173-189.