Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier

doi:10.1029/2023GL106673

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier
	Pang, Yiqun 1,2; Jin, Yishuai 1,2,3; Zhao, Yingying 3; Chen, Xianyao 1,2,3; Li, Xueqi 4; Liu, Ting 4,5; Hu, Junya 6
	2023-12-16
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	50 期号:23 页码:11
通讯作者	Jin, Yishuai([email protected]) ; Zhao, Yingying([email protected])
摘要	Previous studies suggested that tropical sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) through mixing and entrainment and thus it may be a signal for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. This paper explores the influence of SSS on ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) using an empirical dynamic model - Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling and decoupling SSS in the LIM, we find that tropical Pacific SSS plays a significant role in weakening both Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific ENSO SPB. The evolution of optimal initial structure also shows the importance of SSS dynamics in ENSO. We found an SSS mode that plays the dominant role in SSS impacting ENSO prediction. By the analysis of lead-lag correlation, we find that this mode can induce easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Nina-like SST pattern in the winter through zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks. The spring predictability barrier (SPB) is a phenomenon of forecast skill reduction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when it comes to the boreal spring, regardless of the initial month. Sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence sea surface temperature by altering sea surface density and thus it may be a signal for ENSO prediction. Using a linear dynamical model, we find that SSS plays an important role in improving the forecast skill of ENSO and weakening SPB. We further find that SSS can induce the easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Nina-like SST pattern. Our study suggests that SSS can be used to predict ENSO about 1 year later. A linear dynamical model suggests that taking sea surface salinity (SSS) into consideration can strongly weaken Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier (SPB)A new SSS mode is found to be important for weakening ENSO SPBThe SSS mode can predict ENSO events about 1 year earlier by inducing sea surface temperature and wind anomalies in the early spring
关键词	ENSO spring predictability barrier sea surface salinity optimal initial structure
DOI	10.1029/2023GL106673
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Chinese NSFC[NSFC41825012]; Chinese NSFC[42206013]; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China[ZR202102240275]; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China[NSFC42206025]; Taishan Scholars Program[tsqn202306299]
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001111672900001
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS关键词	INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODEL ; FRESH-WATER FLUX ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; PERSISTENCE BARRIER ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; OCEAN ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTIONS ; REANALYSIS
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/183967
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Jin, Yishuai; Zhao, Yingying
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Second Inst Oceanog, Minist Nat Resources, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Peoples R China 5.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pang, Yiqun,Jin, Yishuai,Zhao, Yingying,et al. Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2023,50(23):11.
APA	Pang, Yiqun.,Jin, Yishuai.,Zhao, Yingying.,Chen, Xianyao.,Li, Xueqi.,...&Hu, Junya.(2023).Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,50(23),11.
MLA	Pang, Yiqun,et al."Sea Surface Salinity Strongly Weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 50.23(2023):11.

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