Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming
	Geng, Tao 1,2,3; Jia, Fan 1,4; Cai, Wenju 2,3,5,6; Wu, Lixin 1,2,3; Gan, Bolan 2,3; Jing, Zhao 1,2,3; Li, Shujun 2,3; McPhaden, Michael J.7
	2023-07-27
发表期刊	NATURE
ISSN	0028-0836
卷号	619 期号:7971 页码:774-+
通讯作者	Jia, Fan([email protected]) ; Cai, Wenju([email protected])
摘要	Most El Nino events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter(1-3), whereas La Nina tends to develop after an El Nino and last for two years or longer(4-7). Relative to single-year La Nina, consecutive La Nina features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific(6,7), enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture(8-13). Future changes to multi-year-long La Nina events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings(14), we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Nina ranging from 19 +/- 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 +/- 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Nino warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Nina to persist into a second-year La Nina. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Nina episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.
DOI	10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300]; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB 40030000]; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42206209]; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42276006]; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[2021205]; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[LSKJ202202602]; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[5457]; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279]; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608801]; NSFC[LSKJ202202402]; NSFC[42276016]; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences[42276016]; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)[92058203]; [41876008]; [42006173]
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001038658500019
出版者	NATURE PORTFOLIO
WOS关键词	SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; ENSO ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; AMPLITUDE ; DURATION ; IMPACT
引用统计	被引频次：70[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182697
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Jia, Fan; Cai, Wenju
作者单位	1.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 5.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China 7.NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geng, Tao,Jia, Fan,Cai, Wenju,et al. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming[J]. NATURE,2023,619(7971):774-+.
APA	Geng, Tao.,Jia, Fan.,Cai, Wenju.,Wu, Lixin.,Gan, Bolan.,...&McPhaden, Michael J..(2023).Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming.NATURE,619(7971),774-+.
MLA	Geng, Tao,et al."Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming".NATURE 619.7971(2023):774-+.