Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses
	Zhu Jieshun; Huang Bohua; Marx Lawrence; Kinter James L. III; Balmaseda Magdalena A.; Zhang Ronghua; Hu Zengzhen
	2012-05-04
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷号	39 期号:9 页码:L09602
摘要	In this study, the impact of ocean initial conditions (OIC) on the prediction skill in the tropical Pacific Ocean is examined. Four sets of OIC are used to initialize the 12-month hindcasts of the tropical climate from 1979 to 2007, using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational climate prediction model at the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). These OICs are chosen from four ocean analyses produced by the NCEP and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For each hindcast starting from a given OIC, four ensemble members are generated with different atmosphere and land initial states. The predictive skill in the tropical Pacific Ocean is assessed based on the ensemble mean hindcasts from each individual as well as multiple oceanic analyses. To reduce the climate drift from various oceanic analyses, an anomaly initialization strategy is used for all hindcasts. The results indicate that there exists a substantial spread in the sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill with different ocean analyses. Specifically, the ENSO prediction skill in terms of the anomaly correlation of Nino-3.4 index can differ by as much as 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. The ensemble mean of the predictions initialized from all four ocean analyses gives prediction skill equivalent to the best one derived from the individual ocean analysis. It is suggested that more accurate OIC can improve the ENSO prediction skill and an ensemble ocean initialization has the potential of enhancing the skill at the present stage.
关键词	Climate Forecast System El-nino Seasonal Climate Coupled Model Part Ii Prediction Ncep Predictability Assimilation Simulation
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18160
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu Jieshun,Huang Bohua,Marx Lawrence,et al. Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2012,39(9):L09602.
APA	Zhu Jieshun.,Huang Bohua.,Marx Lawrence.,Kinter James L. III.,Balmaseda Magdalena A..,...&Hu Zengzhen.(2012).Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,39(9),L09602.
MLA	Zhu Jieshun,et al."Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 39.9(2012):L09602.

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文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
Ensemble ENSO hindca（1141KB）			限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览