Improving ENSO prediction in a hybrid coupled model with an embedded entrainment temperature parameterisation

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Improving ENSO prediction in a hybrid coupled model with an embedded entrainment temperature parameterisation
	Zhu Jieshun; Zhou Guangqing; Zhang Ronghua; Sun Zhaobo
	2013-02
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷号	33 期号:2 页码:343-355
摘要	Improving El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast remains a g reat challenge in the climate-predicting community. Previously, an improved solution to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly simulations in the tropical Pacific was obtained by explicitly embedding into an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) a separate SST anomaly submodel with an empirical parameterisation for the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the ocean mixed layer (Te). In the present work, the benefit of the approach is explored and demonstrated in terms of ENSO prediction. A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HCM) is utilized to perform two retrospective ENSO forecasts, differing in the way SST anomaly fields are taken for their coupling to the atmosphere, one directly from the OGCM (referred to as a standard coupling, HCMstd), and another from the embedded SST anomaly submodel with optimized Te parameterisation (referred to as an embedded coupling, HCMembed). The results indicate that ENSO forecasts can be effectively improved using the embedded approach; the predicted Nino-3.4 SST anomaly correlation is higher by 0.1-0.2 at a 12-month lead time in the HCMembed than in the HCMstd, and the corresponding root-mean-square (RMS) error is lower by 0.1-0.2 degrees C. Further improvements and applications are discussed.
关键词	Enso Prediction Entrainment Temperature Parameterization Ogcm
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18159
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu Jieshun,Zhou Guangqing,Zhang Ronghua,et al. Improving ENSO prediction in a hybrid coupled model with an embedded entrainment temperature parameterisation[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2013,33(2):343-355.
APA	Zhu Jieshun,Zhou Guangqing,Zhang Ronghua,&Sun Zhaobo.(2013).Improving ENSO prediction in a hybrid coupled model with an embedded entrainment temperature parameterisation.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,33(2),343-355.
MLA	Zhu Jieshun,et al."Improving ENSO prediction in a hybrid coupled model with an embedded entrainment temperature parameterisation".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 33.2(2013):343-355.

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