Effects of 2019 subsurface Indian Ocean initialization on the forecast of the 2020/2021 La Nina event

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06442-7

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Effects of 2019 subsurface Indian Ocean initialization on the forecast of the 2020/2021 La Nina event
	Wang, Jing1,2,6 ; Zhang, Shouwen 7; Jiang, Hua 8; Yuan, Dongliang1,2,3,4,5,6
	2022-08-17
发表期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
页码	17
通讯作者	Zhang, Shouwen([email protected]) ; Yuan, Dongliang([email protected])
摘要	The interactions between the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean via the Walker circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the inter-basin exchange and climate variations. The effects of the eastern Indian Ocean subsurface temperature conditions during the 2019 Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event on the development of the 2020/2021 La Nina event are investigated of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China. Results of pacemaker experiments comparing the effects of the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic channel suggest that the subsurface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean dominates the inter-basin forcing leading to the outburst of the 2020/2021 La Nina event. The strong subsurface cooling is found to propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Indonesian seas and induce a strong La Nina event at the end of 2020, showing the long memory of the oceanic channel dynamics and the amplification by the ocean-atmospheric coupling. In comparison, experiments forced by surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean show that the atmospheric bridge alone is unable to induce the onset of the 2020 La Nina. The results suggest the importance of the Indo-Pacific oceanic channel dynamics in ENSO forecasts.
关键词	Indian Ocean dipole ENSO Atmospheric bridge Oceanic channel Subsurface temperature
DOI	10.1007/s00382-022-06442-7
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key R&D Program of China[2019YFC1509102]; National Key R&D Program of China[2020YFA0608800]; National Key R&D Program of China[2019YFA0606702]; Marine S&T Fund of Shandong Province for Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)[2022QNLM010304-4]; Strategic Priority Research Program of the CAS[XDB42000000]; NSFC[41776011]; MNR Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions[GASI-04-WLHY-03]; FIO/MNR of China; Oceanographic Data Center, IOCAS
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000842597000002
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计	被引频次：8[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/179926
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Zhang, Shouwen; Yuan, Dongliang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Ctr Ocean Megasci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Funct Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 3.Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Funct Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 5.Shandong Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 8.Minist Nat Resources, Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Jing,Zhang, Shouwen,Jiang, Hua,et al. Effects of 2019 subsurface Indian Ocean initialization on the forecast of the 2020/2021 La Nina event[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2022:17.
APA	Wang, Jing,Zhang, Shouwen,Jiang, Hua,&Yuan, Dongliang.(2022).Effects of 2019 subsurface Indian Ocean initialization on the forecast of the 2020/2021 La Nina event.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,17.
MLA	Wang, Jing,et al."Effects of 2019 subsurface Indian Ocean initialization on the forecast of the 2020/2021 La Nina event".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022):17.