Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5edf

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint
	Bai, Wenrong 1,2; Liu, Hailong 1,2,4; Lin, Pengfei 1,2; Hu, Shijian 3,4; Wang, Fan3,4
	2022-05-01
发表期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	17 期号:5 页码:10
通讯作者	Liu, Hailong([email protected]) ; Lin, Pengfei([email protected])
摘要	The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and expanded substantially over the past decades, which has significantly affected the hydrological cycle and global climate system. It is unclear how the IPWP will change in the future under anthropogenic (ANT) forcing. Here, we quantify the human contribution to the observed IPWP warming/expansion and adjust the projected IPWP changes using an optimal fingerprinting method based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. We find that more than 95% rapid warming and 85% expansion of the observed IPWP are detected and attributable to human influence. Furthermore, human activities affect IPWP warming through both greenhouse gases and ANT aerosols. The multiple model ensemble mean can capture the ANT warming trend and tends to underestimate the ANT warming trend. After using the observation constraint, the IPWP warming is projected to increase faster than that of the ensemble mean in the 21st Century, and the Indian Ocean warm pool is projected to expand more than previously expected. The rapid warming and expansion of IPWP over the rest of the 21st century will impact the climate system and the life of human beings.
关键词	Indo-Pacific warm pool CMIP6 future projection attribution
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac5edf
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42010404]; National Natural Sciences Foundation[41931183]; National Natural Sciences Foundation[41976026]; National Key Research and Development Program[2020YFA0608902]; National Key Research and Development Program[2018YFA0605703]; Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility (EarthLab)
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000788707800001
出版者	IOP Publishing Ltd
引用统计	被引频次：15[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/178871
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Liu, Hailong; Lin, Pengfei
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Megasci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bai, Wenrong,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,et al. Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2022,17(5):10.
APA	Bai, Wenrong,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,Hu, Shijian,&Wang, Fan.(2022).Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(5),10.
MLA	Bai, Wenrong,et al."Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.5(2022):10.

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