Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393

	Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary
	Zhang, Zhixin 1; Mammola, Stefano 2; Zhang, Hui3,4,5
	2020-11-01
发表期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
卷号	741 页码:11
通讯作者	Zhang, Zhixin([email protected]) ; Zhang, Hui([email protected])
摘要	To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models (SDMs) are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long-term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species' potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time-series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species (Stolephorus commersonnii) predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other (Engraulis japonicus). In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward-an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	Climate change Dominant ichthyoplankton Habitat suitability Species distribution modelling Weighting distribution data The Yangtze Estuary
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976094]; Key Deployment Project of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[COMS2019Q14]; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS-JSPS)[GJHZ1885]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000568813500005
出版者	ELSEVIER
引用统计	被引频次：14[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168796
专题	海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者	Zhang, Zhixin; Zhang, Hui
作者单位	1.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1088477, Japan 2.Water Res Inst Natl Res Council Italy CNR IRSA, Mol Ecol Grp MEG, Largo Tonolli 50, I-28922 Verbania, Italy 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 5.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
通讯作者单位	海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Zhang, Hui. Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,741:11.
APA	Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,&Zhang, Hui.(2020).Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,741,11.
MLA	Zhang, Zhixin,et al."Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 741(2020):11.

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