Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology & Environmental Sciences, CAS
| Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment | |
| Essl, Franz1,2; Lenzner, Bernd1; Bacher, Sven3; Bailey, Sarah4; Capinha, Cesar5; Daehler, Curtis6; Dullinger, Stefan1; Genovesi, Piero2,7,8; Hui, Cang9,10,11; Hulme, Philip E.12; Jeschke, Jonathan M.13,14,15; Katsanevakis, Stelios16; Kuehn, Ingolf17,18,19; Leung, Brian20,21; Liebhold, Andrew22,23; Liu, Chunlong13,14,24; MacIsaac, Hugh J.25; Meyerson, Laura A.26; Nunez, Martin A.27; Pauchard, Anibal28,29; Pysek, Petr30,31; Rabitsch, Wolfgang32; Richardson, David M.2; Roy, Helen E.33; Ruiz, Gregory M.34; Russell, James C.35; Sanders, Nathan J.36; Sax, Dov F.37,38; Scalera, Riccardo8; Seebens, Hanno39; Springborn, Michael40; Turbelin, Anna41,42; van Kleunen, Mark43,44; von Holle, Betsy45; Winter, Marten19; Zenni, Rafael D.46; Mattsson, Brady J.47; Roura-Pascual, Nuria48 | |
| 2020-07-14 | |
| 发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| ISSN | 1354-1013 |
| 页码 | 14 |
| 通讯作者 | Essl, Franz([email protected]) |
| 摘要 | Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. |
| 关键词 | biological invasions expert survey globalization impacts management policy scenarios uncertainties |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15199 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 资助项目 | COST Action 'Alien Challenge'[TD1209]; Austrian Science Foundation FWF[I 3757-B29]; BiodivERsA-Belmont Forum Project 'Alien Scenarios' (FWF)[I 4011-B32]; COST Action 'Alien CSI'[CA17122]; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[CEECIND/02037/2017]; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[UIDB/00295/2020]; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[UIDP/00295/2020]; South African Research Chair Initiative (National Research Foundation)[89967]; project 'AlienScenarios'[BMBF FKZ 01LC1807A]; project 'AlienScenarios'[01LC1807B]; project 'AlienScenarios'[01LC1807C]; EXPRO grant (Czech Science Foundation)[19-28807X]; long-term research development project (Czech Academy of Sciences)[RVO 67985939]; Fisheries and Oceans Canada; Transport Canada; NSERC; Natural Environment Research Council as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability[NE/R016429/1]; Belmont Forum-BiodivERsA International joint call project 'InvasiBES'[PCI2018-092939]; Swiss National Science Foundation[31003A_179491]; Swiss National Science Foundation[31BD30_184114]; project 'InvasiBES'[BMBF FKZ 01LC1803A]; CONICYT[PIA AFB-170008]; Canada Research Chair; DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology; Oppenheimer Memorial Trust; National Science Foundation Macrosystems Biology Program[1241932]; National Science Foundation Macrosystems Biology Program[1638702]; grant EVA4.0 - OP RDE[CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803]; FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion - Agencia Estatal de Investigacion[PCI2018-092966] |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000548118200001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/167940 |
| 专题 | 海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Essl, Franz |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Rennweg 14, A-1030 Vienna, Austria 2.Stellenbosch Univ, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Bot & Zool, Matieland, South Africa 3.Univ Fribourg, Dept Biol, Fribourg, Switzerland 4.Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Great Lakes Lab Fisheries & Aquat Sci, Burlington, ON, Canada 5.Univ Lisbon, Inst Geog & Spatial Planning IGOT, Ctr Geog Studies, Lisbon, Portugal 6.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Life Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA 7.Inst Environm Protect & Res ISPRA, Rome, Italy 8.IUCN SSC Invas Species Specialist Grp, Rome, Italy 9.African Inst Math Sci, Biodivers Informat Grp, Cape Town, South Africa 10.Stellenbosch Univ, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Math Sci, Matieland, South Africa 11.Int Initiat Theoret Ecol, London, England 12.Lincoln Univ, Bioprotect Res Ctr, Christchurch, New Zealand 13.Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries I, Berlin, Germany 14.Free Univ Berlin, Inst Biol, Berlin, Germany 15.Berlin Brandenburg Inst Adv Biodivers Res BBIB, Berlin, Germany 16.Univ Aegean, Dept Marine Sci, Mitilini, Greece 17.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Community Ecol, Halle, Germany 18.Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Geobot & Bot Garden, Halle, Germany 19.German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Leipzig, Germany 20.McGill Univ, Dept Biol, Montreal, PQ, Canada 21.McGill Univ, Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada 22.US Forest Serv, Northern Res Stn, Morgantown, WV USA 23.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Prague, Czech Republic 24.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China 25.Univ Windsor, Great Lakes Inst Environm Res, Windsor, ON, Canada 26.Univ Rhode Isl, Dept Nat Resources Sci, Kingston, RI 02881 USA 27.Univ Nacl Comahue, CONICET, Grp Ecol Invas, INIBIOMA, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina 28.Univ Concepcion, Fac Ciencias Forestales, Lab Invas Biol LIB, Concepcion, Chile 29.Inst Ecol & Biodivers, Santiago, Chile 30.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Dept Invas Ecol, Pruhonice, Czech Republic 31.Charles Univ Prague, Fac Sci, Dept Ecol, Prague, Czech Republic 32.Environm Agcy Austria, Dept Biodivers & Nat Conservat, Vienna, Austria 33.UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England 34.Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, POB 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA 35.Univ Auckland, Sch Biol Sci, Auckland, New Zealand 36.Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Environm Program, Burlington, VT USA 37.Brown Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Providence, RI 02912 USA 38.Brown Univ, Inst Brown Environm & Soc, Providence, RI 02912 USA 39.Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, Frankfurt, Germany 40.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA 41.Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecol Systemat Evolut, Orsay, France 42.Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London, England 43.Univ Konstanz, Dept Biol, Ecol, Constance, Germany 44.Taizhou Univ, Zhejiang Prov Key Lab Plant Evolutionary Ecol & C, Taizhou, Peoples R China 45.Natl Sci Fdn, Div Environm Biol, Alexandria, VA USA 46.Univ Fed Lavras, Dept Biol, Lavras, Brazil 47.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Wildlife Biol & Game Management, Vienna, Austria 48.Univ Girona, Dept Ciencies Ambientals, Girona, Spain |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Essl, Franz,Lenzner, Bernd,Bacher, Sven,et al. Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2020:14. |
| APA | Essl, Franz.,Lenzner, Bernd.,Bacher, Sven.,Bailey, Sarah.,Capinha, Cesar.,...&Roura-Pascual, Nuria.(2020).Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,14. |
| MLA | Essl, Franz,et al."Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2020):14. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| gcb.15199.pdf（1252KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | |
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