The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments

doi:10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
	Xie, Ruihuang1,2,3 ; Fang, Xianghui 4,5,6
	2020-05-01
发表期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN	1674-7313
卷号	63 期号:5 页码:626-633
通讯作者	Fang, Xianghui([email protected])
摘要	The 2014-2016 El Nino events consist of a stalled El Nino event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Nino event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Nino events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Nino in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges (EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Nino events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Nino.
关键词	El Nino Westerly Wind Bursts Easterly Wind Surges Operational prediction models
DOI	10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000527003100002
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
引用统计	被引频次：16[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/167170
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Fang, Xianghui
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China 6.Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai 518057, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Ruihuang,Fang, Xianghui. The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2020,63(5):626-633.
APA	Xie, Ruihuang,&Fang, Xianghui.(2020).The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,63(5),626-633.
MLA	Xie, Ruihuang,et al."The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 63.5(2020):626-633.

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