Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6

IOCAS-IR

	Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming
	Cai, Wenju 1,2,3; Wang, Guojian 1,2,3; Gan, Bolan 1,2; Wu, Lixin 1,2; Santoso, Agus 3,4; Lin, Xiaopei 1,2; Chen, Zhaohui 1,2; Jia, Fan 5; Yamagata, Toshio 6
	2018-04-12
发表期刊	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	9 页码:8
通讯作者	Cai, Wenju([email protected]) ; Wu, Lixin([email protected])
摘要	Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Nino. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 degrees C and ideally below 1.5 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 degrees C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Nino frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Nino preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.
DOI	10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research###1618; Earth Science and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme###1619; CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader award###1620; Australian Research Council###1621; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research; Earth Science and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme; CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader award; Australian Research Council
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000429794300012
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
引用统计	被引频次：51[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/158469
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
通讯作者	Cai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Tas 7004, Australia 4.Univ New South Wales, Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Level 4 Mathews Bldg, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 6.JAMSTEC, Applicat Lab, Kanazawa Ku, 3173-25 Showa Machi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cai, Wenju,Wang, Guojian,Gan, Bolan,et al. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2018,9:8.
APA	Cai, Wenju.,Wang, Guojian.,Gan, Bolan.,Wu, Lixin.,Santoso, Agus.,...&Yamagata, Toshio.(2018).Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,9,8.
MLA	Cai, Wenju,et al."Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 9(2018):8.

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