The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects

doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
	Mu Mu 1,2; Duan WanSuo 3,4; Tang YouMin 5
	2017-11-01
发表期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
卷号	60 期号:11 页码:2001-2012
文章类型	Review
摘要	This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit (IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed. The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.
关键词	Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic Predictability Limit Ensemble Forecast
DOI	10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000413691300006
引用统计	被引频次：19[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
版本	出版稿
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/143043
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,Tang YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2017,60(11):2001-2012.
APA	Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,&Tang YouMin.(2017).The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,60(11),2001-2012.
MLA	Mu Mu,et al."The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 60.11(2017):2001-2012.

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