Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
| Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions | |
| Feng, Rong1; Duan, Wansuo1; Mu, Mu2 | |
| 2017-02-01 | |
| 发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
 |
| 卷号 | 48期号:3-4页码:1173-1185 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts. |
| 关键词 | Indian Ocean Dipole Sensitive Areas Winter Predictability Barrier Initial Errors |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3134-3 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000394150500027 |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136383 |
| 专题 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48(3-4):1173-1185. |
| APA | Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,&Mu, Mu.(2017).Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48(3-4),1173-1185. |
| MLA | Feng, Rong,et al."Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48.3-4(2017):1173-1185. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Estimating observing（5307KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | |
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