The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts

doi:10.1007/s00376-011-0201-x

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts
	Chen Boyu 2,3; Mu Mu 1,2; Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
	2012
发表期刊	ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN	0256-1530
卷号	29 期号:1 页码:63-78
文章类型	Article
摘要	In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs), TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008), to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), first singular vector (FSV), and composite singular vector (CSV) methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.
关键词	Sensitive Area Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Cnop Uncertainty Of Initial Conditions Nonlinear Development
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1007/s00376-011-0201-x
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000298387000007
引用统计	被引频次：11[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12198
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Natl Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Boyu,Mu Mu,Mu, M . The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2012,29(1):63-78.
APA	Chen Boyu,Mu Mu,&Mu, M .(2012).The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,29(1),63-78.
MLA	Chen Boyu,et al."The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 29.1(2012):63-78.

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