Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

doi:10.1007/s00343-012-1290-9

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result
	Yu Xiaolin 1,2,3; Wang Fan1 ; Tang Xiaohui 1; Wang, F (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
	2012-09-01
发表期刊	CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
ISSN	0254-4059
卷号	30 期号:5 页码:826-842
文章类型	Article
摘要	Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs. Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1, and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation, the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea (ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme. This mostly relates to local wind change, whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened. Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result. Downscaling 100 years' temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3, with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0A degrees C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5A degrees C. More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation. Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea, and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China, west coast of Korea, and southern ECS. There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer, and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter. There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter, related to the delicate temperature increment distribution. At 50 meter depth, the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed. Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass, regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer. In summer, the mixed layer is deeper, making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.
关键词	Future Temperature Marginal China Seas Downscaling Ipcc_ar4 Sres Ccsm3 Roms
学科领域	Limnology ; Oceanography
DOI	10.1007/s00343-012-1290-9
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000308357800015
引用统计	被引频次：6[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12151
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Wang, F (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Ocean Univ China, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu Xiaolin,Wang Fan,Tang Xiaohui,et al. Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2012,30(5):826-842.
APA	Yu Xiaolin,Wang Fan,Tang Xiaohui,&Wang, F .(2012).Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result.CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,30(5),826-842.
MLA	Yu Xiaolin,et al."Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result".CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 30.5(2012):826-842.

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