Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
| Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model? | |
| Yu, Yanshan2; Mu, Mu2; Duan, Wansuo1; Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. | |
| 2012-02-01 | |
| 发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| 卷号 | 25期号:4页码:1263-1277 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 摘要 | Within the framework of the Zebiak-Cane model, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is used to study the effect of model parameter errors on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. The optimal model parameter errors are obtained within a reasonable error bound (i.e., CNOP-P errors), which have the largest effect on the results of El Nino predictions. The resultant prediction errors were investigated in depth. The CNOP-P errors do not cause a noticeable prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly averaged over the Nino-3 region and do not show an obvious season-dependent evolution of the prediction errors. Consequently, the CNOP-P errors do not cause a significant spring predictability barrier (SPB) for El Nino events. In contrast, the initial errors that have the largest effect on the results of the predictions (i.e., the CNOP-I errors) show a season-dependent evolution, with the largest error increase in spring, and also cause a large prediction error, thereby generating a significant SPB. The initial errors play a more important role than the parameter errors in generating a significant SPB for El Nino events. To further validate this result, the authors investigated the situation in which CNOP-I and CNOP-P errors are simultaneously superimposed in the model, which may be a more credible approach because the initial errors and model parameter errors coexist under realistic predictions. The combined mode of CNOP-I and CNOP-P errors shows a similar season-dependent evolution to that of CNOP-I errors and yields a large prediction error, thereby inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors play a more important role than model parameter errors in generating a significant SPB for El Nino predictions of the Zebiak-Cane model. This result helps to clarify the roles of the initial error and parameter error in the development of an SPB, and highlights the role of initial errors, which demonstrates that the SPB could be markedly reduced by improving the initial conditions. The results provide a theoretical basis for improving data assimilation in ENSO predictions. |
| 关键词 | Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Ocean-atmosphere Model General-circulation Model Sea-surface Temperature Southern Oscillation Coupled Model Thermohaline Circulation Enso Predictability Initial Conditions Data Assimilation |
| 学科领域 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| DOI | 10.1175/2011JCLI4022.1 |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000300418500012 |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12138 |
| 专题 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
| 第一作者单位 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,et al. Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2012,25(4):1263-1277. |
| APA | Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,&Duan, WS .(2012).Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,25(4),1263-1277. |
| MLA | Yu, Yanshan,et al."Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 25.4(2012):1263-1277. |
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