Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions

doi:10.1029/2011JC007758

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions
	Yu, Yanshan 1; Mu, Mu 1; Duan, Wansuo 2; Gong, Tingting 1; Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
	2012-06-26
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
ISSN	0148-0227
卷号	117 页码:C06018
文章类型	Article
摘要	With the Zebiak-Cane model, the contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) to uncertainty in El Nino predictions is investigated using an approach based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which seeks to find the initial error (i.e., the CNOP error) that satisfies a given constraint and that causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The computed CNOP error of SSTA has a dipole pattern in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The initial error from the equatorial central and eastern Pacific tends to grow more significantly than those from other locations. Because of the contribution of annual mean states the location of the initial error plays an important role in the error evolution; e. g., the shallow annual mean thermocline in the eastern Pacific favors feedback between the thermocline and sea surface temperature. Meanwhile, the specific dipole structure of the initial error is also crucial for optimal error growth. Even with the same magnitude as the CNOP error, random initial error in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific does not evolve significantly over time. Initial errors of SSTA with a similar spatial pattern to the CNOP error (i.e., the dipole pattern of SSTA error) give rise to larger prediction errors than those without similar spatial pattern do. Consequently, the magnitude of the prediction error at the prediction time depends on the combined effects of the location and spatial pattern of the initial error. If additional observation instruments are deployed to observe sea surface temperature with limited coverage, they should preferentially be deployed in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
关键词	Sea-surface Temperature Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Singular Vector Analysis Enso Predictability Coupled Model Thermohaline Circulation Southern Oscillation Optimal-growth Stability Sensitivity
学科领域	Oceanography
DOI	10.1029/2011JC007758
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000306002900002
引用统计	被引频次：37[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12134
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,et al. Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2012,117:C06018.
APA	Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,Gong, Tingting,&Gong, TT .(2012).Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,117,C06018.
MLA	Yu, Yanshan,et al."Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 117(2012):C06018.

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