A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay

doi:10.1007/s00343-011-0520-x

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay
	Shi Honghua 1,2; Wang Zongling 1; Fang Guohong 1; Zheng Wei 1; Hu Long 3
	2011-07-01
发表期刊	CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
ISSN	0254-4059
卷号	29 期号:4 页码:905-911
文章类型	Article
摘要	Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.; Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.
关键词	Statistical Dynamics Modeling Inverse Method Marine Ecosystem Dynamics Jiaozhou Bay
学科领域	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
DOI	10.1007/s00343-011-0520-x
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000292558700020
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/11553
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Fudan Univ, Sch Math Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,et al. A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2011,29(4):905-911.
APA	Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,Zheng Wei,&Hu Long.(2011).A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay.CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,29(4),905-911.
MLA	Shi Honghua,et al."A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay".CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 29.4(2011):905-911.

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